Lightning Strikes the U.S. Capitol, Washington Monument, New World Trade Center, and Empire State Building ALL on New Year’s Eve

by The Prophecies | Jan 1, 2025

–Newsweek/MG

A.I. Probability Study of Lightning Striking ALL Four of these sites on New Year’s Eve (or on any single day):

Mathematical Probability of such an occurrence (generated by Claude.AI) …

(Spoiler: “This event would theoretically occur once every 36.5 Billion years”)

C (That’s me)

What are the odds (or is the probability) of the US Capitol Building, the Washington Monument, the New World Trade Center (NY), and the Empire State Builiding (NY), ALL being struck by lightning on same New Year’s Eve 2024, and on the same eve of a new year during which a new President of the United States will be taking office?

Claude.AI

Let me break this down step by step to estimate this highly specific probability.

1. Lightning strike probabilities:

• Tall buildings are more likely to be struck by lightning due to their height
• The Empire State Building is struck by lightning around 25 times per year on average
• Other similar tall structures get struck roughly 10-20 times per year

1. Timing factors:

• New Year’s Eve is just one day out of 365
• Lightning is less common in winter months in these locations
• Storms would need to be present in both DC and NYC simultaneously

1. Joint probability calculation:

• We need ALL buildings to be struck on the same specific day
• Two different cities need storm conditions (DC and NYC)
• Winter lightning is less frequent
• The strikes need to happen on a presidential transition year

Making a rough calculation:

• Probability of strike per building on a winter day: ~1/100
• Probability of storms in both cities on same winter day: ~1/50
• Four buildings all being struck: (1/100)^4 = 1/100,000,000
• Specific day (NYE): 1/365
• Presidential transition year: This part is fixed as given

The final probability would be astronomically small – approximately 1 in 36.5 billion, though this is a simplified estimation.

This is such a specific scenario that I’d call it effectively impossible in practical terms, though not technically impossible. The required coincidence of winter storms in both cities, plus strikes on all four buildings, on this exact date, makes it an extremely unlikely event.

Would you like me to explain any part of this probability estimation in more detail?

C

Yes, please do.

Claude.AI

Let me expand on each component of the probability calculation in more detail.

1. Individual Building Strike Probabilities:

• The Empire State Building’s 25 strikes/year means roughly 0.068 probability on any given day (25/365)
• However, lightning strikes follow seasonal patterns:
  • Summer months see about 70% of annual strikes
  • Winter months (like December) see only about 5-10% of annual strikes
  • This reduces our daily winter probability to about 0.01 (1%)

1. Geographic and Weather Considerations:

• DC and NYC are about 225 miles apart
• Winter thunderstorms typically occur in these areas due to:
  • Strong cold fronts
  • Nor’easters
  • Coastal systems
• The probability of simultaneous thunderstorm activity:
  • Normal thunderstorm probability in December: ~2-3 days per month
  • Simultaneous storms in both cities: even rarer
  • Estimated at about 2% chance on any winter day

1. Timing Factor:

• New Year’s Eve gives us exactly one chance
• This is equivalent to a 1/365 multiplier
• The presidential transition year is already set, so it doesn’t affect our probability

1. Combined Building Strikes:

• For all four buildings to be struck, we multiply their individual probabilities:
  • Each building ≈ 0.01 probability
  • Combined: (0.01)⁴ = 0.00000001
• Then multiply by:
  • Simultaneous storm probability (0.02)
  • Specific day probability (1/365)

The resulting probability is minuscule because we’re dealing with what statisticians call a “conjunction” – multiple independent events all needing to occur simultaneously. Each additional requirement multiplies the improbability.

A useful analogy might be: this would be like throwing four dice and getting all sixes (1/1296), but only on a specific day of the year, and only during a specific type of weather event in two specific cities. The compound nature of these requirements makes it astronomically unlikely.

Would you like me to elaborate on any particular aspect of these calculations or the weather patterns involved?

C

Would it be possible to convert your answer into a “once in how many years” answer or probability?

Claude.AI

Let me convert this to a “once in X years” format.

Starting with our rough probability of 1 in 36.5 billion for this happening on a single New Year’s Eve:

• To find how often this might occur, we need to consider that New Year’s Eve happens once per year

• Therefore, this event would theoretically occur once every 36.5 Billion years!!  (Exclamation points are mine for emphasis)

To put this in perspective:

• The universe is about 13.8 billion years old  (according to modern textbooks, but NOT the Bible)
• The Earth is about 4.5 billion years old  (according to modern textbooks, but NOT the Bible)
• This event would theoretically happen once every ~2.6 universes

Another way to think about it: If we started counting from the formation of the Earth, and this hadn’t happened yet, we would still need to wait another 32 billion years (about 7 times the current age of the Earth) before we might expect to see this combination of events occur once.

This illustrates why we would consider this practically impossible, even though it’s technically not impossible. The time scales involved are so vast that they exceed the age of our planet and approach three times the age of the universe itself.

<END OF CLAUDE.AI DIALOGUE>

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